How to become a better forecaster

In Superforecasting Phil Tetlock explores how his team of volunteer amateurs beat CIA analysts and University researchers at forecasting complex events. I draw out three points: 1- Some context on the project and forecasting in general. How do you measure a forecaster’s accuracy? What have a talking-head forecaster and a dart-wielding chimp got in common? … Read more

The Future of the Mind

How do we think, and how much of how we think is understood by contemporary science? What is consciousness, anyway? Machio Kaku, in his Future of the Mind (2014), covers a lot of ground. I draw out three things:.  A history of neuroscience which has important lessons for people who listen to science-backed advice.   Kaku’s model of consciousness, which places … Read more